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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 33.04 (-12.7%) | 41.62 (+10.0%) | 48.99 (+29.5%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 29.59 (-21.8%) | 37.84 (+0.0%) | 48.39 (+27.9%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 33 (-12.8%) | 42.1 (+11.3%) | 56.5 (+49.3%) |
History since 2003; now 37.84. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 54.5% | 56.7% | 0.5% | 178 | 47%–62% | as usual |
| 3 months | 54.4% | 62.2% | 1.8% | 68 | 43%–66% | as usual |
| 1 year | 85.0% | 77.3% | 7.5% | 20 | 64%–95% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 72 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.255 vs 0.233 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.