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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 2.3 (-34.2%) | 3.82 (+9.5%) | 6.88 (+97.1%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 1.31 (-62.3%) | 3.49 (+0.0%) | 9.26 (+165.5%) |
History since 2010; now 3.49. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 56.8% | 46.4% | 3.0% | 81 | 46%–67% | as usual |
| 3 months | 58.1% | 46.9% | 8.3% | 31 | 41%–74% | as usual |
| 1 year | 69.2% | 62.5% | 28.9% | 13 | 42%–87% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 44 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.266 vs 0.261 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.