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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 684.99 (-9.9%) | 823.27 (+8.3%) | 961.72 (+26.5%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 462.34 (-39.2%) | 760 (+0.0%) | 1,249.29 (+64.4%) |
History since 2010; now 760. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 61.3% | 55.5% | 0.3% | 124 | 53%–69% | as usual |
| 3 months | 57.8% | 53.3% | 1.6% | 45 | 43%–71% | as usual |
| 1 year | 84.6% | 80.0% | 9.1% | 13 | 58%–96% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 44 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.245 vs 0.233 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.