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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 159.45 (-14.8%) | 203.61 (+8.7%) | 251.73 (+34.4%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 133.77 (-28.6%) | 187.25 (+0.0%) | 262.11 (+40.0%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 142 (-24.2%) | 179.71 (-4.0%) | 206 (+10.0%) |
History since 1962; now 187.25. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI overbought
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 48.6% | 55.4% | 0.4% | 111 | 40%–58% | as usual |
| 3 months | 60.0% | 61.6% | 2.1% | 80 | 49%–70% | as usual |
| 1 year | 60.5% | 65.1% | 8.0% | 38 | 45%–74% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 238 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.235 vs 0.238 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state adds a little knowledge.