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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 194.5 (-17.1%) | 253.92 (+8.2%) | 330.42 (+40.8%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 174.03 (-25.8%) | 234.6 (+0.0%) | 316.25 (+34.8%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 219 (-6.6%) | 260.29 (+10.9%) | 292 (+24.5%) |
History since 1980; now 234.6. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 56.3% | 54.9% | 0.8% | 336 | 51%–61% | as usual |
| 3 months | 60.6% | 61.7% | 2.2% | 127 | 52%–69% | as usual |
| 1 year | 64.9% | 66.7% | 10.9% | 37 | 49%–78% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 166 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.245 vs 0.244 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.