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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 200.32 (-45.3%) | 414.06 (+13.1%) | 884.06 (+141.5%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 130.14 (-64.5%) | 366.11 (+0.0%) | 1,029.96 (+181.3%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 405 (+10.6%) | 613.38 (+67.5%) | 900 (+145.8%) |
History since 1978; now 366.11. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 50.0% | 53.5% | 1.3% | 72 | 39%–61% | as usual |
| 3 months | 52.3% | 55.3% | 4.9% | 44 | 38%–66% | as usual |
| 1 year | 44.4% | 57.4% | 39.5% | 27 | 28%–63% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 172 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.247 vs 0.246 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.