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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 378.31 (-32.3%) | 643.23 (+15.1%) | 1,022.34 (+82.9%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 383.83 (-31.3%) | 558.88 (+0.0%) | 813.76 (+45.6%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 350 (-37.4%) | 571.46 (+2.3%) | 667 (+19.3%) |
History since 1991; now 558.88. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 51.9% | 53.5% | 1.3% | 235 | 46%–58% | as usual |
| 3 months | 51.6% | 56.2% | 5.7% | 91 | 42%–62% | as usual |
| 1 year | 60.7% | 64.7% | 21.2% | 28 | 42%–76% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 119 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.269 vs 0.249 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.