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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 264.12 (-33.9%) | 452.94 (+13.3%) | 716.15 (+79.2%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 244.4 (-38.8%) | 399.66 (+0.0%) | 653.54 (+63.5%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 238 (-40.4%) | 426.42 (+6.7%) | 530 (+32.6%) |
History since 1982; now 399.66. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 54.2% | 54.0% | 1.6% | 295 | 49%–60% | as usual |
| 3 months | 57.7% | 58.0% | 5.3% | 111 | 48%–66% | as usual |
| 1 year | 62.9% | 63.6% | 21.9% | 35 | 46%–77% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 159 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.255 vs 0.247 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.