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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 240.67 (-20.8%) | 348.24 (+14.6%) | 423.17 (+39.2%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 227.37 (-25.2%) | 304 (+0.0%) | 406.46 (+33.7%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 245 (-19.4%) | 331.42 (+9.0%) | 375 (+23.4%) |
History since 1980; now 304. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 57.3% | 54.5% | 1.2% | 363 | 52%–62% | as usual |
| 3 months | 63.8% | 59.2% | 3.0% | 130 | 55%–72% | as usual |
| 1 year | 67.6% | 73.9% | 11.5% | 37 | 51%–80% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 167 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.236 vs 0.232 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.