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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 311.97 (-23.2%) | 475.99 (+17.2%) | 731.54 (+80.1%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 244.42 (-39.8%) | 406.13 (+0.0%) | 674.83 (+66.2%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 440 (+8.3%) | 584.39 (+43.9%) | 1,000 (+146.2%) |
History since 1997; now 406.13. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 58.2% | 58.3% | 2.0% | 220 | 52%–65% | as usual |
| 3 months | 63.0% | 60.7% | 5.2% | 81 | 52%–73% | as usual |
| 1 year | 73.9% | 78.6% | 29.8% | 23 | 54%–87% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 96 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.255 vs 0.241 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.