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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 14.67 (-23.3%) | 19.54 (+2.2%) | 25.53 (+33.5%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 11.71 (-38.7%) | 19.12 (+0.0%) | 31.21 (+63.3%) |
History since 2009; now 19.12. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 53.4% | 47.0% | 0.7% | 88 | 43%–63% | as usual |
| 3 months | 48.4% | 53.7% | 2.1% | 31 | 32%–65% | as usual |
| 1 year | 75.0% | 50.0% | 13.3% | 12 | 47%–91% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 50 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.252 vs 0.251 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.