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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 47.45 (-23.8%) | 75.61 (+21.4%) | 119.29 (+91.6%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 25.45 (-59.1%) | 62.26 (+0.0%) | 152.31 (+144.6%) |
History since 2010; now 62.26. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 73.3% | 52.1% | 8.4% | 15 | 48%–89% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 3 months | 63.6% | 60.9% | 12.1% | 11 | 35%–85% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 1 year | 42.9% | 68.8% | 31.9% | 7 | 16%–75% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 45 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.302 vs 0.254 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.