Loading…
Loading…
A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 104.12 (-16.4%) | 136.29 (+9.5%) | 187.16 (+50.3%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 98.54 (-20.9%) | 124.5 (+0.0%) | 157.3 (+26.3%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 97.23 (-21.9%) | 121.84 (-2.1%) | 137.9 (+10.8%) |
History since 1996; now 124.5. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 58.5% | 56.7% | 0.8% | 217 | 52%–65% | as usual |
| 3 months | 63.9% | 62.4% | 2.1% | 83 | 53%–73% | as usual |
| 1 year | 68.0% | 65.5% | 12.2% | 25 | 48%–83% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 99 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.240 vs 0.229 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.