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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 37.6 (-22.1%) | 61.36 (+27.2%) | 89.62 (+85.7%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 28.31 (-41.3%) | 48.26 (+0.0%) | 82.27 (+70.5%) |
History since 2008; now 48.26. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 51.7% | 58.8% | 0.8% | 60 | 39%–64% | as usual |
| 3 months | 45.5% | 60.0% | 4.9% | 22 | 27%–65% | as usual |
| 1 year | 66.7% | 58.8% | 43.7% | 9 | 35%–88% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 52 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.288 vs 0.268 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.