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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 37.57 (-23.4%) | 60.48 (+23.3%) | 85.8 (+75.0%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 31.99 (-34.8%) | 49.04 (+0.0%) | 75.18 (+53.3%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 80.33 (+63.8%) | 88.55 (+80.6%) | 100.01 (+103.9%) |
History since 2010; now 49.04. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 45.5% | 54.2% | 0.2% | 55 | 33%–58% | as usual |
| 3 months | 45.0% | 56.3% | 0.9% | 20 | 26%–66% | as usual |
| 1 year | 57.1% | 68.8% | 16.2% | 7 | 25%–84% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 44 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.283 vs 0.282 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.