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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 17.36 (-18.9%) | 22.42 (+4.7%) | 29.12 (+36.0%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 14.77 (-31.0%) | 21.41 (+0.0%) | 31.04 (+45.0%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 20 (-6.6%) | 27.72 (+29.5%) | 34 (+58.8%) |
History since 1983; now 21.41. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 55.5% | 54.5% | 0.6% | 200 | 49%–62% | as usual |
| 3 months | 59.2% | 56.5% | 1.5% | 76 | 48%–70% | as usual |
| 1 year | 63.0% | 54.8% | 5.7% | 27 | 44%–78% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 150 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.254 vs 0.244 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.