Loading…
Loading…
A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 42.55 (-46.4%) | 88.55 (+11.5%) | 145.6 (+83.3%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 55.3 (-30.4%) | 79.42 (+0.0%) | 114.05 (+43.6%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 68.7 (-13.5%) | 75.49 (-4.9%) | 79.43 (+0.0%) |
History since 1980; now 79.42. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 52.4% | 49.8% | 2.6% | 307 | 47%–58% | as usual |
| 3 months | 57.9% | 51.9% | 6.6% | 114 | 49%–67% | as usual |
| 1 year | 58.3% | 64.4% | 35.1% | 36 | 42%–73% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 166 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.255 vs 0.250 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.