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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 408.74 (-36.6%) | 749.03 (+16.2%) | 1,254.14 (+94.6%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 248.32 (-61.5%) | 644.58 (+0.0%) | 1,673.15 (+159.6%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 700 (+8.6%) | 1,032.54 (+60.2%) | 1,588 (+146.4%) |
History since 2002; now 644.58. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 37.1% | 55.1% | -0.8% | 35 | 23%–54% | a real difference |
| 3 months | 52.4% | 52.2% | 1.6% | 21 | 32%–72% | as usual |
| 1 year | 61.5% | 60.9% | 26.7% | 13 | 36%–82% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 75 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.266 vs 0.249 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.