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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 33.57 (-31.1%) | 48.35 (-0.8%) | 74.64 (+53.2%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 27.67 (-43.2%) | 48.73 (+0.0%) | 85.81 (+76.1%) |
History since 2006; now 48.73. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 50.5% | 53.9% | 0.9% | 111 | 41%–60% | as usual |
| 3 months | 55.8% | 55.8% | 1.5% | 43 | 41%–70% | as usual |
| 1 year | 57.1% | 52.6% | 4.0% | 14 | 33%–79% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 60 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.287 vs 0.250 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.