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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 54.34 (-16.7%) | 65.21 (+0.0%) | 104.74 (+60.6%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 29.99 (-54.0%) | 65.21 (+0.0%) | 141.81 (+117.5%) |
History since 2001; now 65.21. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI overbought
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 8.3% | 13.9% | -1.5% | 24 | 2%–26% | as usual |
| 3 months | 22.2% | 25.8% | -2.4% | 9 | 6%–55% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 1 year | 16.7% | 39.1% | -5.8% | 6 | 3%–56% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 70 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.205 vs 0.197 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.