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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 37.02 (-16.5%) | 45.24 (+2.0%) | 56.1 (+26.5%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 32.75 (-26.1%) | 44.34 (+0.0%) | 60.03 (+35.4%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 44 (-0.8%) | 53.61 (+20.9%) | 63 (+42.1%) |
History since 2002; now 44.34. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 56.7% | 54.3% | -0.1% | 60 | 44%–68% | as usual |
| 3 months | 59.4% | 54.3% | 0.8% | 32 | 42%–74% | as usual |
| 1 year | 70.6% | 60.9% | 5.3% | 17 | 47%–87% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 76 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.252 vs 0.251 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.