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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 17.24 (-28.8%) | 24.55 (+1.4%) | 35.52 (+46.8%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 16.62 (-31.3%) | 24.2 (+0.0%) | 35.23 (+45.6%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 15.76 (-34.9%) | 15.76 (-34.9%) | 15.76 (-34.9%) |
History since 2006; now 24.2. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 53.3% | 49.8% | 0.7% | 120 | 44%–62% | as usual |
| 3 months | 55.8% | 51.9% | 2.5% | 43 | 41%–70% | as usual |
| 1 year | 60.0% | 47.4% | 3.8% | 15 | 36%–80% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 60 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.270 vs 0.257 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.