Loading…
Loading…
A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 89.88 (-17.3%) | 119.45 (+9.9%) | 145.38 (+33.8%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 80.74 (-25.7%) | 108.69 (+0.0%) | 146.32 (+34.6%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 83 (-23.6%) | 108.48 (-0.2%) | 129 (+18.7%) |
History since 1984; now 108.69. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 54.9% | 56.4% | 0.9% | 337 | 50%–60% | as usual |
| 3 months | 56.5% | 61.7% | 2.6% | 124 | 48%–65% | as usual |
| 1 year | 68.4% | 73.2% | 10.5% | 38 | 53%–81% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 150 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.254 vs 0.250 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.