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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 10.25 (-25.9%) | 15.71 (+13.7%) | 26.02 (+88.3%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 4.71 (-65.9%) | 13.82 (+0.0%) | 40.52 (+193.2%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 13.6 (-1.6%) | 16.8 (+21.6%) | 20 (+44.7%) |
History since 2011; now 13.82. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 50.0% | 55.6% | 1.6% | 26 | 32%–68% | as usual |
| 3 months | 64.7% | 50.8% | 9.7% | 17 | 41%–83% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 1 year | 62.5% | 57.1% | 34.6% | 8 | 31%–86% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 41 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.275 vs 0.256 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.