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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 66.64 (-24.3%) | 103.18 (+17.2%) | 170.03 (+93.1%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 63.52 (-27.9%) | 88.05 (+0.0%) | 122.04 (+38.6%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 82 (-6.9%) | 117.32 (+33.2%) | 147 (+67.0%) |
History since 1987; now 88.05. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI oversold
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 34.8% | 57.3% | -4.1% | 23 | 19%–55% | a real difference |
| 3 months | 45.5% | 58.2% | -0.1% | 22 | 27%–65% | as usual |
| 1 year | 76.5% | 63.2% | 26.6% | 17 | 53%–90% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 135 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.244 vs 0.241 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.