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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 62.52 (-24.3%) | 84.95 (+2.9%) | 122.77 (+48.7%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 52.71 (-36.2%) | 82.55 (+0.0%) | 129.29 (+56.6%) |
History since 2009; now 82.55. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 60.9% | 50.5% | 1.6% | 87 | 50%–71% | as usual |
| 3 months | 53.1% | 53.7% | 3.8% | 32 | 36%–69% | as usual |
| 1 year | 50.0% | 62.5% | 3.4% | 12 | 25%–75% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 50 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.263 vs 0.253 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.