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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 414.13 (-14.7%) | 516.7 (+6.4%) | 643.31 (+32.5%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 277.37 (-42.9%) | 485.68 (+0.0%) | 850.44 (+75.1%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 503.09 (+3.6%) | 503.09 (+3.6%) | 503.09 (+3.6%) |
History since 2009; now 485.68. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 53.3% | 56.4% | 0.7% | 120 | 44%–62% | as usual |
| 3 months | 59.5% | 53.7% | 2.1% | 42 | 44%–73% | as usual |
| 1 year | 64.3% | 68.8% | 6.7% | 14 | 39%–84% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 49 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.284 vs 0.271 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.