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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 51.88 (-15.3%) | 66.1 (+7.9%) | 81.86 (+33.6%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 42.46 (-30.7%) | 61.27 (+0.0%) | 88.42 (+44.3%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 52 (-15.1%) | 60.01 (-2.0%) | 67.1 (+9.5%) |
History since 2003; now 61.27. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI overbought
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 55.0% | 58.6% | 0.2% | 40 | 40%–69% | as usual |
| 3 months | 59.3% | 55.1% | 1.6% | 27 | 41%–75% | as usual |
| 1 year | 66.7% | 59.1% | 4.7% | 12 | 39%–86% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 69 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.266 vs 0.262 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.