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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 426.27 (-14.9%) | 522.82 (+4.3%) | 655.16 (+30.8%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 278.24 (-44.5%) | 501.04 (+0.0%) | 902.24 (+80.1%) |
History since 2012; now 501.04. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 50.0% | 50.9% | 0.6% | 88 | 40%–60% | as usual |
| 3 months | 58.1% | 49.1% | 1.9% | 31 | 41%–74% | as usual |
| 1 year | 70.0% | 61.5% | 7.2% | 10 | 40%–89% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 36 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.242 vs 0.250 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state adds a little knowledge.