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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 15.92 (-34.5%) | 28.31 (+16.4%) | 42.09 (+73.1%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 12.71 (-47.7%) | 24.32 (+0.0%) | 46.54 (+91.4%) |
History since 2018; now 24.32. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 66.0% | 61.5% | 3.1% | 53 | 53%–77% | as usual |
| 3 months | 68.4% | 60.0% | 8.0% | 19 | 46%–85% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 1 year | 60.0% | 57.1% | 14.4% | 5 | 23%–88% | weak signal (few cases) |