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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 80.92 (-31.3%) | 142.55 (+21.0%) | 208.21 (+76.8%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 48.39 (-58.9%) | 117.8 (+0.0%) | 286.73 (+143.4%) |
History since 2016; now 117.8. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 66.2% | 60.7% | 2.9% | 71 | 55%–76% | as usual |
| 3 months | 68.0% | 67.6% | 7.9% | 25 | 48%–83% | as usual |
| 1 year | 85.7% | 88.9% | 22.3% | 7 | 49%–97% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 20 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.301 vs 0.278 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.