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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 13.09 (-40.6%) | 22.6 (+2.5%) | 41.92 (+90.1%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 13.52 (-38.7%) | 22.05 (+0.0%) | 35.96 (+63.1%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 17.4 (-21.1%) | 24.14 (+9.5%) | 31 (+40.6%) |
History since 2000; now 22.05. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 57.1% | 54.9% | 2.1% | 147 | 49%–65% | as usual |
| 3 months | 51.9% | 50.5% | 3.8% | 54 | 39%–65% | as usual |
| 1 year | 38.9% | 48.0% | 13.1% | 18 | 20%–61% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 84 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.262 vs 0.245 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.