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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 11.17 (-42.4%) | 20.52 (+5.7%) | 36.46 (+87.8%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 11.98 (-38.3%) | 19.41 (+0.0%) | 31.44 (+62.0%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 21 (+8.2%) | 23.86 (+22.9%) | 28 (+44.3%) |
History since 2003; now 19.41. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 56.3% | 53.8% | 1.3% | 135 | 48%–64% | as usual |
| 3 months | 54.2% | 54.5% | 2.9% | 48 | 40%–67% | as usual |
| 1 year | 60.0% | 59.1% | 5.1% | 15 | 36%–80% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 70 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.271 vs 0.256 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.