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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 311.7 (-14.8%) | 467.28 (+27.7%) | 718.43 (+96.4%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 192.86 (-47.3%) | 365.87 (+0.0%) | 694.08 (+89.7%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 190 (-48.1%) | 398.52 (+8.9%) | 525 (+43.5%) |
History since 2012; now 365.87. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 63.2% | 63.4% | 2.0% | 106 | 54%–72% | as usual |
| 3 months | 62.5% | 64.2% | 6.3% | 40 | 47%–76% | as usual |
| 1 year | 72.7% | 76.9% | 28.1% | 11 | 43%–90% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 36 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.260 vs 0.237 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.