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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 144.5 (-9.9%) | 171.99 (+7.3%) | 203.31 (+26.8%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 87.09 (-45.7%) | 160.35 (+0.0%) | 295.23 (+84.1%) |
History since 2010; now 160.35. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI overbought
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 50.0% | 55.9% | -0.8% | 12 | 25%–75% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 3 months | 36.4% | 62.9% | -1.4% | 11 | 15%–65% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 1 year | 57.1% | 80.0% | 8.8% | 7 | 25%–84% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 44 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.287 vs 0.268 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.