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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 29.33 (-26.7%) | 48.29 (+20.7%) | 62.27 (+55.7%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 22.29 (-44.3%) | 40 (+0.0%) | 71.79 (+79.5%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 39.63 (-0.9%) | 44.97 (+12.4%) | 61.61 (+54.0%) |
History since 1981; now 40. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 56.7% | 59.1% | 0.2% | 150 | 49%–64% | as usual |
| 3 months | 60.0% | 65.2% | 2.2% | 60 | 47%–71% | as usual |
| 1 year | 60.9% | 72.7% | 13.7% | 23 | 41%–78% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 162 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.227 vs 0.225 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.