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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 69.75 (-16.9%) | 88.08 (+4.9%) | 105.62 (+25.8%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 63.21 (-24.7%) | 83.95 (+0.0%) | 111.5 (+32.8%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 71 (-15.4%) | 89.94 (+7.1%) | 98 (+16.7%) |
History since 2005; now 83.95. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 54.8% | 54.1% | -0.1% | 31 | 38%–71% | as usual |
| 3 months | 52.4% | 55.6% | -0.5% | 21 | 32%–72% | as usual |
| 1 year | 50.0% | 55.0% | 1.1% | 12 | 25%–75% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 64 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.257 vs 0.250 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.