Loading…
Loading…
A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 11.02 (-13.0%) | 13.63 (+7.6%) | 17.45 (+37.7%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 9.58 (-24.4%) | 12.67 (+0.0%) | 16.77 (+32.3%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 12.71 (+0.3%) | 13.1 (+3.4%) | 13.5 (+6.6%) |
History since 2008; now 12.67. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI overbought
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 16.7% | 58.7% | -2.4% | 6 | 3%–56% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 3 months | 50.0% | 61.8% | 4.1% | 6 | 19%–81% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 1 year | 50.0% | 52.9% | 10.3% | 6 | 19%–81% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 52 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.251 vs 0.233 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.