Loading…
Loading…
A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 547.83 (-13.1%) | 676.5 (+7.3%) | 867.46 (+37.6%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 374.15 (-40.6%) | 630.37 (+0.0%) | 1,062.04 (+68.5%) |
History since 2009; now 630.37. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 56.0% | 60.9% | 1.0% | 25 | 37%–73% | as usual |
| 3 months | 57.1% | 59.7% | 1.8% | 14 | 33%–79% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 1 year | 62.5% | 56.3% | 15.0% | 8 | 31%–86% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 49 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.230 vs 0.242 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state adds a little knowledge.