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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 323.36 (-27.3%) | 562.26 (+26.4%) | 790.33 (+77.7%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 278.61 (-37.4%) | 444.73 (+0.0%) | 709.91 (+59.6%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 236 (-46.9%) | 458.72 (+3.1%) | 560 (+25.9%) |
History since 2011; now 444.73. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 59.5% | 60.3% | 2.2% | 116 | 50%–68% | as usual |
| 3 months | 63.6% | 62.1% | 5.4% | 44 | 49%–76% | as usual |
| 1 year | 76.9% | 71.4% | 22.6% | 13 | 50%–92% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 41 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.226 vs 0.230 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state adds a little knowledge.