Loading…
Loading…
A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 15.48 (-23.9%) | 21.73 (+6.8%) | 29.73 (+46.2%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 8.32 (-59.1%) | 20.34 (+0.0%) | 49.75 (+144.6%) |
History since 2008; now 20.34. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 55.0% | 54.8% | 0.9% | 109 | 46%–64% | as usual |
| 3 months | 60.0% | 54.3% | 2.7% | 40 | 45%–74% | as usual |
| 1 year | 46.2% | 64.7% | 5.2% | 13 | 23%–71% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 52 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.253 vs 0.256 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state adds a little knowledge.