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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 68.62 (-20.4%) | 95.65 (+11.0%) | 136.79 (+58.8%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 58.66 (-31.9%) | 86.16 (+0.0%) | 126.56 (+46.9%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 95.5 (+10.8%) | 106.83 (+24.0%) | 121 (+40.4%) |
History since 2006; now 86.16. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 58.5% | 53.1% | 1.3% | 82 | 48%–69% | as usual |
| 3 months | 67.7% | 62.0% | 3.7% | 31 | 50%–81% | as usual |
| 1 year | 58.3% | 73.7% | 12.1% | 12 | 32%–81% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 59 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.244 vs 0.248 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state adds a little knowledge.