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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 360.84 (-16.6%) | 465.71 (+7.6%) | 669.12 (+54.6%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 295.65 (-31.7%) | 432.92 (+0.0%) | 633.93 (+46.4%) |
History since 2010; now 432.92. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 59.4% | 54.3% | 2.0% | 69 | 48%–70% | as usual |
| 3 months | 61.5% | 58.1% | 5.0% | 26 | 43%–78% | as usual |
| 1 year | 70.0% | 73.3% | 14.7% | 10 | 40%–89% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 44 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.281 vs 0.239 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.