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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 154.5 (-35.4%) | 283.6 (+18.6%) | 531.01 (+122.1%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 102.87 (-57.0%) | 239.11 (+0.0%) | 555.8 (+132.4%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 255 (+6.6%) | 364.03 (+52.2%) | 500 (+109.1%) |
History since 1984; now 239.11. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 51.5% | 56.0% | 2.0% | 66 | 40%–63% | as usual |
| 3 months | 57.5% | 60.8% | 3.6% | 40 | 42%–71% | as usual |
| 1 year | 68.0% | 56.1% | 28.6% | 25 | 48%–83% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 149 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.249 vs 0.239 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.