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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 462.03 (-27.5%) | 707.31 (+11.0%) | 992.79 (+55.9%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 432.66 (-32.1%) | 636.95 (+0.0%) | 937.7 (+47.2%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 498 (-21.8%) | 652.57 (+2.5%) | 835 (+31.1%) |
History since 1962; now 636.95. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI overbought
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 52.9% | 53.6% | 0.8% | 51 | 40%–66% | as usual |
| 3 months | 52.2% | 56.5% | 1.8% | 46 | 38%–66% | as usual |
| 1 year | 63.3% | 69.8% | 9.1% | 30 | 46%–78% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 236 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.252 vs 0.247 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.