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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 81.42 (-13.5%) | 103.05 (+9.5%) | 135.04 (+43.5%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 73.71 (-21.7%) | 94.08 (+0.0%) | 120.08 (+27.6%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 80 (-15.0%) | 97.54 (+3.7%) | 106 (+12.7%) |
History since 1962; now 94.08. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 56.9% | 57.2% | 0.9% | 504 | 53%–61% | as usual |
| 3 months | 59.7% | 64.7% | 2.6% | 186 | 53%–66% | as usual |
| 1 year | 71.4% | 74.6% | 10.5% | 56 | 59%–82% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 237 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.237 vs 0.231 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.