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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 23.97 (-29.2%) | 36.26 (+7.1%) | 44.61 (+31.7%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 25.82 (-23.8%) | 33.87 (+0.0%) | 44.43 (+31.2%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 32 (-5.5%) | 37.5 (+10.7%) | 43 (+27.0%) |
History since 2011; now 33.87. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 51.7% | 53.4% | 0.5% | 29 | 34%–69% | as usual |
| 3 months | 61.1% | 50.8% | 1.4% | 18 | 39%–80% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 1 year | 70.0% | 57.1% | 7.4% | 10 | 40%–89% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 41 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.273 vs 0.253 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.