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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 106.97 (-32.3%) | 181.78 (+15.1%) | 323.57 (+104.9%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 72.07 (-54.4%) | 157.91 (+0.0%) | 345.98 (+119.1%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 175 (+10.8%) | 221.42 (+40.2%) | 325 (+105.8%) |
History since 1980; now 157.91. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 55.9% | 54.3% | 2.9% | 186 | 49%–63% | as usual |
| 3 months | 54.8% | 60.2% | 8.2% | 73 | 43%–66% | as usual |
| 1 year | 69.0% | 66.7% | 39.7% | 29 | 51%–83% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 163 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.249 vs 0.246 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.