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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 239.27 (-12.4%) | 303.61 (+11.1%) | 396.47 (+45.1%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 209.5 (-23.3%) | 273.2 (+0.0%) | 356.26 (+30.4%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 190 (-30.5%) | 279.41 (+2.3%) | 320 (+17.1%) |
History since 1962; now 273.2. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 55.8% | 56.1% | 1.1% | 500 | 51%–60% | as usual |
| 3 months | 61.8% | 63.1% | 2.7% | 186 | 55%–69% | as usual |
| 1 year | 69.6% | 69.8% | 13.7% | 56 | 57%–80% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 237 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.239 vs 0.237 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.