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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 39.93 (-19.4%) | 52.95 (+7.0%) | 76.37 (+54.3%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 35.49 (-28.3%) | 49.51 (+0.0%) | 69.07 (+39.5%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 49 (-1.0%) | 59.12 (+19.4%) | 70 (+41.4%) |
History since 1980; now 49.51. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 54.1% | 52.8% | 0.6% | 183 | 47%–61% | as usual |
| 3 months | 55.9% | 59.6% | 1.7% | 68 | 44%–67% | as usual |
| 1 year | 64.3% | 60.0% | 9.8% | 28 | 46%–79% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 164 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.244 vs 0.238 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.